Keller Auditorium poses a wicked problem.

The building needs to be replaced or drastically remodeled to make it earthquake-safe and bring it in line with modern theater standards. But any renovation project will shut down the Keller for years, cutting off jobs and a major revenue stream for the city.

A new build could be the solution but the proposed projects would cost hundreds of millions of dollars and there is no waiting pot of money.

The Portland City Council has now heard three proposals for the future of a performance art building big enough for Broadway. City staff are compiling information based on community feedback and the city council could bring the topic back up for discussion as soon as Wednesday, Aug. 14.

“However, it is also possible that timing will change,” said Mayor Ted Wheeler’s office on Thursday. “It is very complex with so many factors that need careful consideration.”

Here are seven things Portlanders should know about the project and what could happen next.

1. It’s a vexing problem with no clear solution

Keller Auditorium is an old building – parts of it are more than 100 years old – and categorized as “unreinforced masonry,” meaning it’s likely to be seriously damaged in a major earthquake.

The theater also is not up to the standards of current performance venues that host similar audiences and shows. There aren’t enough bathrooms. Everything from the sound system to the seats needs to be updated.

And yet, Keller Auditorium generates profits that support operations of all five Metro-operated performance theaters in three city-owned buildings in Portland. It hosts Broadway in Portland, one of the most popular and lucrative cultural series in the city.

For years, city leaders have known something must be done. Now, Portland officials are exploring options to either renovate Keller Auditorium or build a new performing arts center somewhere else. In May, Portland City Council heard three proposals – one to renovate the existing structure and two to rebuild elsewhere.

“Two overarching themes are clear,” the mayor’s office said Thursday. “1) there is a great deal of concern about the current site and what happens there, and 2) it is overwhelmingly clear that the impacts of a closure that would displace event activity should be avoided if at all possible. It is also clear that this is a momentous decision and one that should not be made lightly, or without having all the necessary information.”

But so far, no one proposal has emerged as a perfect solution.

2. The group behind the remodel plan has real estate in the Keller neighborhood

The Halprin Landscape Conservancy has been developing a plan to renovate the Keller since 2016. The group supports the “Halprin Sequence,” a chain of three fountains at the south end of downtown, stretching from the Keller Fountain to Portland State.

Read more: Plans for renovated Keller Auditorium include public plaza, reimagined entryway and plenty of bathrooms

Renovation was the first plan presented to the city, and the Halprin group has been on the defensive since the process was opened to other ideas. They’ve hired Gallatin Public Affairs, an influential public affairs firm, to spread their message and commissioned a poll in support of their plan.

Gard Communications has been hired by PSU to work on their campaign.

Several of the people behind the Halprin project have a vested interest in property adjacent to the current Keller. That includes John Russell, who initially brought together the group that sponsored an earlier renovation design competition, which led to the current plan. Russell owns the 200 Market Building which is next door to the Keller.

It also includes Scott Andrews, co-chair of the Halprin Landscape Conservancy. Andrews is the longtime president of the brokerage arm of Melvin Mark Cos. That real estate firm owns – outright or through a partnership – and manages several office buildings and parking garages in the blocks surrounding the Keller.

Informational towers promoting the “21st Century Keller” remodel project recently appeared in the lobby of Crown Plaza, the Melvin Mark building in downtown Portland that is home to The Oregonian/OregonLive’s offices.

“The towers are an exhibit to inform the public about the history, restoration and development of the 21st Century Keller which creates a new destination for downtown Portland,” Karen Whitman, a spokesperson for the Halprin group said Thursday.

The towers started their journey in February at the Oregon Historical Society, Whitman said, and will now pass through lobbies of buildings in downtown Portland through August.

During the May city council meeting, members of the Downtown Neighborhood Association and supporters of the Halprin Landscape Conservancy plan testified about how a renovated Keller would enliven the south end of downtown, using many of the talking points the group has sent out in emails. One of those is the idea that if the city does not opt to renovate the Keller as a performance art venue, it will abandon the building completely, a claim that is not supported by officials.

When it was his turn to testify, Russell was dismissive of the new build proposals.

“My prediction is that the PSU proposal and that the Lloyd building will never get built,” he said. “You have one choice that is real.”

3. Almost no one thinks shutting down the Keller is a viable option

Russell’s pronouncement omitted a basic fact that has become the big problem behind the entire Keller project: Shutting down the Keller for any length of time would have dramatic consequences and has almost no support except for within the Halprin universe.

“The biggest challenge for the Keller is this closure notion,” Greg Phillips said in an interview in June.

The city hired Phillips in January to help guide the city council during the process of deciding the next steps for the Keller.

Phillips is a theater professional who led Portland Center Stage through a tumultuous time in the mid-2000s. Since then, he has been supporting arts groups and helping build performance art centers. He’s currently working on venue projects in California, Washington and Colorado, along with the Keller project.

When it comes to the Keller, Phillips is steadfast: “We can’t close it.”

“During Portland’s recovery and in the ensuing years, Broadway, opera, ballet performances continue to have an enormous positive economic impact on livelihoods, downtown, the city and the region,” he said. “These are also the predominant performances that bring suburbanites to the city.”

“We can’t close it now,” he added, “but we shouldn’t close it in the rest of this decade.”

So far, Broadway Across America, which brings touring Broadway musicals to Portland, has declined to endorse a plan, including the Halprin group’s compromise, which would see construction happen in five-month increments.

Labor groups are also concerned about closing the Keller for a renovation, even incrementally.

“A shutdown is a nonstarter,” said Kevin Lux, executive secretary-treasurer for Columbia-Pacific Building and Construction Trades Council at the council meeting in May. “Jobs must and can be protected.”

At the meeting, Sue Dixon, general director of Portland Opera, also testified about the problems a closure would cause, just as the performance art industry in Portland is regaining ground after COVID.

“Coming out of the pandemic, continuity is crucial,” she said.

The cost of closing the Keller, even part-time, to remodel the building would have to include jobs, both on the construction side and on the theater side, and potentially years of revenue that now supports arts in the city.

People who perform technical theater jobs may be forced to leave town, which would have ripple effects on the city and state’s entire arts ecosystem.

In May, Metro paid for a study on the economic impact a Keller shutdown would have on Portland. The study estimates that a 24-month closure would mean the loss of nearly $100 million. The Halprin group disputes that number.

When asked what the Halprin group says to people who believe any shutdown of the Keller won’t work for Portland, Whitman responded: “They are wrong, and their logic is deeply flawed.”

“They believe the city should permanently abandon the Keller, a very successful city-owned auditorium, to build something new at roughly twice the price outside the downtown cultural district while also assuming the substantial financial liability and risk of an empty, unusable building and a downtown block, simply to avoid temporary closure of the Keller,” she added. “This is a political argument manufactured to support building a new theater complex elsewhere in the city.”

4. The Portland State Plan is the most expensive on paper and would move the performing arts further south

Though the Portland State plan is an answer to the closure issue, it presents problems of its own.

The PSU site is just under half a mile south of the current Keller, and therefore half a mile further from the center of downtown. And it doesn’t currently have the parking, restaurants and bars to support theatergoers, though PSU officials say that would change if the venue was built.

While it would be a collaboration between Portland State and the city, and PSU would foot part of the bill and lead fundraising, it comes with a major price tag: $600 million for the entire thing, with about $450 million for the city-owned venue.

Portland State estimates that the city would be responsible for $200 to $300 million. Officials at PSU estimate the cost to the city wouldn’t be substantially different with the PSU plan or the Halprin plan, if the costs of a shutdown are included.

Read more: Could a multi-use arts complex at Portland State replace Keller Auditorium?

5. A venue at Portland State could expand upon what is possible at the current Keller

In 2023, the Keller was rented out for 206 days, including performances, load-ins, tech and dark days that happen in the middle of shows’ runs, according to Brian Wilson, interim executive director of Portland’5. That means it was rented about 56% of the year and open to audiences fewer days than that, predominantly in the evening.

While the Keller is on a non-negotiable or expandable acre-wide city block, the PSU site is about 4.25 acres and would include one 3,000-seat venue and another 1,200-seat auditorium. The plan also includes a hotel, practice spaces, classrooms and a much larger load-in space.

Portland State’s team tells the story of a complex that is always on, hosting events, classes, shows and building up an economy around it.

At the May city council meeting, Portland State students and community members testified about their enthusiasm for an arts complex on campus, talking about how it would help the creation of a hospitality and tourism program and increase the profile of the university.

Even Mayor Wheeler seemed positive about the project.

“One core component of successful cities in the recovery and I believe going forward is strong university infrastructure,” Wheeler said at the meeting.

The PSU team envisions a complex that will entice people from throughout the city and the state, and unlike the Keller, it could be open all day, every day.

This is a crucial element for Phillips, who said a 21st century performance center, “has to be activated from 6 a.m. to midnight.”

“We just don’t build single venues anymore with single theaters that are dark all day,” he added.

6. The group behind the Lloyd Center project isn’t talking

Beyond their presentation at the city council meeting in May, Urban Renaissance Group has been mostly silent about their plan for a new Keller.

That plan called the Lloyd Center site “a blank canvas for community engagement.”

“We are not defining what can be drawn on this canvas,” the plan said, “but instead desire to highlight how the performing arts center in this location can 1) fulfill the promise of what this district can be, 2) deliver the dream of a facility that enriches our city, and 3) plant seeds of hope for how the arts can truly serve all in our community.”

When presented with questions for this story, Urban Renaissance Group responded, “No comment.”

Earlier this month, Willamette Week reported that Monqui Presents and Anschutz Entertainment Group “have agreed to build a 4,250-seat music venue in the Lloyd Center mall.”

Since the Lloyd Center venue plan involves tearing down the existing mall, it seems unlikely that both projects will move forward.

7. The city doesn’t have any money set aside for the project and could choose none, or some, of the options as a way forward

The Keller remodel project is estimated to cost about $290 million, before factoring in lost revenue and jobs. Keller Auditorium is a city-owned building, so the city would be responsible for any project related to the building, though Halprin says they could raise some money through fundraising.

The PSU project is estimated to cost $600 million, with about $450 million for a city-owned venue and $200 to $300 million from the city. PSU already has an active fundraising arm and is also confident they can raise o for this project.

The Lloyd Center project is estimated to cost $430 million.

When the cost to the city of a Keller shutdown is factored in, some people estimate all the costs would be roughly the same, though everyone also generally agrees every number is an estimate and budgets often change.

But then comes an even bigger problem: The city has no readily available money waiting to be used to rebuild a major city-owned arts venue. This will require bonds, help from the state and federal government, and most importantly, major philanthropy.

Both Halprin and Portland State believe they can sell naming rights – Halprin to new features in the old Keller and Portland State to a brand-new building among other things.

“History tells us that individual philanthropy is going to be key on this and any other project,” Phillips said.

“Our fate, the region’s fate, is probably in the hands of a handful of our greatest philanthropists,” he added.

But so far no major donor has stepped up to say they would fund either project and before Portland State or Halprin can even begin to talk to major donors, the city must come up with a path forward.

“We’re really in the 11th hour trying to figure out which of these challenges can or cannot be overcome, and which of these presents the greatest opportunity,” Phillips said.

For Phillips and others, it doesn’t have to be a winner-take-all approach. “Every one of these sites should have a Plan B,” he said.

It’s possible that the city council won’t pick an individual idea but will ask for more time or come up with a more holistic plan that includes both the current Keller and the Portland State project, which are connected by the Halrprin Sequence fountains.

The Oregonian/OregonLive reached out to all the members of Portland’s City Council. Mayor Wheeler and two commissioners responded.

“I have not yet made any decisions about the future of Keller Auditorium,” Portland Commissioner Carmen Rubio said in a statement about the project, “as this process has been continually evolving. So far council has heard only a single presentation, and while the testimony was helpful, I remain concerned about several outstanding issues.”

For Rubio, those issues are budget, impacts on downtown businesses and workers and climate impact.

“These concerns deserve hard analysis,” Rubio said, “and will help us make an informed decision that will most benefit our local economy and our creative community.”

For Commissioner Dan Ryan, doing nothing is not an acceptable outcome.

“What’s necessary is that we come up with a plan,” Ryan said. “So we have to figure out what success looks like. And for me, it’s that we have world-class performing arts facilities that we truly need. And that we continue to bring life into downtown.

“For me, it’s an economic imperative that we focus on this.”

In a statement, Wheeler said having world-class venues was vital to Portland’s culture and quality of life.

“I will continue reviewing and engaging in follow-up discussions with proponents of various proposals, and will work with my colleagues on the city council to outline next steps,” Wheeler said.

In his testimony to city council in May, the treasurer and co-chair of the Halprin Landscape Conservancy, Bill Naito, offered an idea that would, in theory, please everyone.

“Your best bet,” he said, “is to bet on all three of them.”

– Lizzy Acker covers life and culture and writes the advice column Why Tho? Reach her at 503-221-8052, lacker@oregonian.com or @lizzzyacker

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